Wait, wasn't there reports that the real estate market was STRONG?

The assessor's full report for this year is not even out yet. The San Jose Inside piece is mixing up years with some facts from different years. The facts cherry picked are misleading. The conclusion of this article is off as a result. See Web Link for the media release that occurred back over 3 months ago on July 3rd.

2023 Assessment Roll Growth at $41.2 billion in spite of
fewer property transfers and proactive reductions of
19,000 Properties

So besides the 19,000 properties that were dropped in value, enough else happened that the net result was $41 Billion growth. This does not yet at all reflect what is happening regarding sales and value changes during 2023, but only the valuations as of the start of this year.

It's really weird to see San Jose Inside's error be copied in the Voice!

Another error is that the 19,000 properties that dropped in value are not close to $4.7 Billion in declined value. The $4.7 Billion figure in the press release refers to something completely different.

What the press release does say is that while 19,000 properties in Prop 8 decline status were proactively reduced for the current tax year the total impact of this was $2.8 Billionm which was offset by ~20 times more value increases.

I read the website sited above. But that does not mean it is accurate regarding growth of real estate. Most properties in Mountain View on Zillow are having price cuts. Remember that report was done in July at best meaning it was using data from Q1 2023. By then there has been a lot of changes.

And also remember, this is a forecast, it is not real regarding the future values. Given that more layoffs are occurring and more businesses are closing offices, there is not a good trend to look forward to. As population declines go a 0.3% decline in population means a decline in demand. But at the same time we are completing record numbers of new housing.

But now we have record numbers of housing not even listed. Because the market is trying to prevent more value loss. The fact that the market lost value in this situation is showing it may actually be much worse.

To quote from the Assessors Press Release about the market value changes based on the date Jan 1 2023
"The leading contributors to the increase in property assessments are changes in ownership and new construction, which accounted for $21.5 billion and $6.8 billion, respectively. Historically high business property values added $4.7 billion."

There were a lot more properties with increases than there were with decreases, over the course of 2022.

"This year’s roll includes 19,064 properties in Proposition 8 decline status, totaling $2.8 billion. Of those,98 percent are residential properties, a majority of which qualified for a reduced assessment due to lateterm decline in residential market values."

For the minority of properties with a decline in value, their total valuation (NOT THE DECLINE) was $2.8 billion.

So man, the headline of this article is ENTIRELY WRONG!!!!!

Again, you are talking about data that is 10 months old.

You need to get ready for the real drop off. That has already started.

An important point is that San Jose Inside made blatant errors in reporting what the county assessor's office released to the public.

(a) they over stated the amount involved in the valuations of the properties that decreased (the very small minority that did so).

(b) They conflated the total final appraised value of the 19,000 properties in temporary reduced valuation state with the actual change in valuation caused by those temporary valuations

(c) they overlooked the fact that there was actually a huge rise in the total assessed valuation in the county

I just ask this, if it was that erroneous, where is the retraction?

San Jose Spotlight also reported it.

To me what you are simply saying is you cannot believe it.

The real pain will be the shortcomings of property tax revenues.