Shut everything now! Except food and hospitals.

Already, there is an explosion of cases coming.
Today's confirmed case was infected 10 days ago or longer, accounting for time to develop severe symptoms and testing delays. Coronavirus has been busy these last 10 days, infecting 30-40% more each day, perhaps higher as we crowd into markets. We already have the past 10 days of infected people becoming sick who we know will need care. Coronavirus spread is exponential - very bad. Hospital demand is cumulative over infection - even worse. The lag between infection and severe symptoms further hides the severity of the epidemic.

Data from Wuhan gives a stark warning. They entered lockdown with 400 new cases, 600 total. Hospital demand over the next weeks grew 100x, exceeding 50,000, with many turned away. We will be lucky to math that.

It is bad, bad, bad.

Please stay home. Tell a friend. Socialize electronically.

* I'm an engineer, not a health official.

This "article" is like reading Twitter: A stream of consciousness bunch of random junk.
Curated information please.

Oops, Error.

The 50,000 I cited represents diagnosed cases. 20% needed hospital care.
So the hospital demand multiplier is "only" 20x.

@realDonaldTrump - Curated information please.

Okay:

- Trump fired the admiral who was in charge of our national pandemic team three years ago. He never replaced that position on the NSC.

- Trump and Pence refused the offer of millions of test kits from the WHO in January.

The next two weeks are huge. The mistakes above (along with the incredibly slow and inept response by Trump and Pence) will be the primary culprits if, in a couple weeks, this takes off like Italy, or is controlled similar to South Korea.

Example: look at the customs section of our major international airports last night (DFW, O'Hare, etc..)

Let's look at the numbers in two weeks. Until then, think Italian: keep distant so we may embrace later.

Stop pointing the finger at President Trump. That "slow response" MONTHS faster than the response to H1N1. Try putting the partisanship away and act like you care about people more than politics for the time being.

We have no idea yet about much of what is going on. Trusting numbers out of Wuhan MAY be indicative of what we see here, but there is no way to know that.

Until we DO know more, limit contact with others as much as possible, stay calm, wash your hands and leave supplies for others when you shop. We all need to want our neighbors to be able to protect themselves as well. The more people we that can avoid getting and spreading this, the sooner we can put a stop to it.

I will resist calling Donald Trump names for the moment. Maybe Joe Biden should have been doing more when he was in office as a Senator and as Vice-President for 8 years. There will be time to evaluate his record too. Viruses do not negotiate. They can be manufactured - which is pretty damn foolish - but they also change on their own. Viruses probably have always threatened living beings on Earth. For now, take all precautions and take a look at "Contagion," a 2011 fictional movie about a viral pandemic. You will find almost everything now being discussed about the current real-life pandemic. Just a movie? Sure. A movie based on known facts. Facts known in and before 2011. And in 2014, along came Ebola - a bullet dodged in the United States. I just saw a poll reported on CNN. Only half of registered independents believe Covid-19 is a serious threat - only 40% of registered Republicans nationwide. The Presidential election will not be decided by the vote in a deep blue state such as California. But Congressional seats are important and Californians can influence voting in swing states. So let's mitigate the impending disaster and live to oust the politicians and bureaucrats that have failed our country.

Re: "Shut everything now! Except food and hospitals."

Don't forget the critical industries that food and hospitals depend on, like:
- utilities
- transportation
- roads
- infrastructure
- communication
- internet
- sanitation
- sanitation supplies
- plumbing
- plumbing supplies
- electrical
- electrical supplies
- freeway rest areas (truckers=transportation)
- manufacturing
- financial services
- first responders
- pharmacists
- blood centers (and their donors)
- etc.
- etc.
- etc.

Your section header reads "County asks residents to hand over protective equipment". Where is the support for this claim?

Is not Berkeley a part of Alameda county? Why don't you know that.

> Why don't you know that.

Berkeley has it's own health department and acts independently.

"... the Berkeley Public Health Division is an anomaly. Berkeley is one of just three cities in California ... that runs its own public health agency separate from the county. The Alameda County Health Department oversees the rest of the cities in the county."

So, gotta ask: Why don't you know that. (sic)

;-)

Thanks for letting me know. I did not know that. Now I know. ;)