"He said the rail authority expects Gilroy to attract roughly as many rail passengers Amtrak currently draws in the Northeast corridor."

According to the updated business plan Gilroy is estimated to see 1,715,500 boardings per year by *2035*. A little high for my tastes, but not over-the-top corrupt "disband the CHSRA" high.

Right now, the Northeast Corridor's Acela Express sees 3.39 million boardings per year. Northeast Regional adds another 8 million. The Downeaster (the train from Boston to Portland, ME, which doesn't even connect directly to other Amtrak trains) does .474 million riders per year. There are only five round-trips daily. Remember, the Northeast Corridor isn't even true high speed rail.

Gilroy is not estimated to see more boardings than the Northeast Corridor, though I do think it will be a huge magnet for riders who will drive or take an express bus to the Gilroy Station from points South such as Salinas and Monterrey.

I wholeheartedly believe it can do more boardings in 2035 than the Downeaster in 2009, which only sees five round-trips per day and doesn't even offer direct connections to other Amtrak trains (you have to connect via subway from North Station to South Station).

At the end of the day you are comparing projections for 2035 to 2008/2009 statistics. Gilroy is growing whether we like it or not. If they are smart they would direct growth downtown and constrain sprawl, then their station could easily do a million boardings per year by 2035.

How can we take ANYBODY's projections of ridership of a rail system 25 years from now seriously? There's just no rational basis for doing so.

Comparing CHSRA to Amtrak is one sure way to ensure it never happens since AMTRAK is by-and-large subsidized by the govt and hardly a model of excellence worth following.