In the latest sign that the Bay Area shutdown is effectively containing the spread of the coronavirus, Santa Clara County is seeing the rate of new cases gradually stabilize.
Dr. Sara Cody, the county's health officer, said Tuesday that COVID-19 cases in the county are doubling every two weeks, according to the latest counts. In early March, before the county began adopting increasingly stringent measures to mandate social distancing, cases doubled roughly every three days, Cody told the county Board of Supervisors on Tuesday.
"The trend is exactly what we want to see: that we're lengthening the doubling time, we're slowing things down," Cody said. "And this we've been able to do because our community has come together and is reducing their contacts and interactions with each other to the greatest extent possible."
As of Tuesday morning, the county had reported 1,224 confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 42 deaths, three of which were reported on Monday. And with various models predicting a surge of patients later this month or in early May, health officials remain cautious about the pandemic's trajectory in the coming weeks, particularly given the absence of widespread testing.
Cody noted that the models that the county has been using to predict the pandemic's spread suggest that the county's case count will range between 2,500 and 12,000 on May 1. Without the social distancing measures, the case count would be about 50,000, she said.
The county's hospitals also remain well below capacity, with 276 coronavirus patients, including 165 in acute care beds and 91 in intensive care beds, according to county data. About 46% of the acute care beds and 30% of ICU beds remain available. View the county's models on projected cases, acute beds at hospitals and doubling time here.
Even with the slowdown, there's been no indication that the stay-at-home measures will be lifted on May 3, when the current order is set to expire. Before the county relaxes the social distancing rules, it would need to make sure that its hospitals are able to "safely treat everyone living in the county with the care that they need, when they need it."
The county also would need to have widespread testing so that anyone who shows symptoms can be tested and, if necessary, isolated. And the region would need to have the ability to conduct "robust case investigation," rapid isolation and some degree of contact tracing.
Cody said that before the county transitions to the next phase, it needs to see a "sustained reduction of cases" over 14 days, the incubation period of COVID-19.
"Even though this is an enormous challenge and even though this has been incredibly confusing and disruptive and chaotic, I think these models show us that we have prevented deaths and we have prevented hospitalizations and we have given our hospitals time to prepare," Cody told the board.
County Executive Jeff Smith and Cody also signaled that social distancing rules won't be entirely lifted for a long time. Smith suggested that of the currently prohibited activities, those that carry a lower risk of infection will likely be looked at first.
"I don't expect that we'll have any sports games until at least Thanksgiving, and we'll be lucky to have them by Thanksgiving," Smith said. "This is not going to be something that's going be easy to do."
Find comprehensive coverage on the Midpeninsula's response to the new coronavirus by Palo Alto Online, the Mountain View Voice and the Almanac here.
Comments
Old Mountain View
on Apr 7, 2020 at 3:33 pm
on Apr 7, 2020 at 3:33 pm
How meaningful are these numbers with testing being so incomplete and inconsistent?
Monta Loma
on Apr 7, 2020 at 4:50 pm
on Apr 7, 2020 at 4:50 pm
The amount of testing has significantly increased, yet the numbers are starting to go down. This is an encouraging trend.
Castro City
on Apr 7, 2020 at 4:54 pm
on Apr 7, 2020 at 4:54 pm
'amount of testing has significantly increased"
We're not any where near the tests we were promised by Trump, or the tests we require.
Cuernavaca
on Apr 8, 2020 at 7:50 am
on Apr 8, 2020 at 7:50 am
While a lagging indicator, the number of hospitalizations for C19 is a good indicator of how we're trending in the absence of widespread testing. Since we're not seeing #s materially increase, it means social distancing is working. And we have a lot of spare ICU beds which is amazing vs. what was projected to happen without taking preventative measures.
We do certainly need widespread testing and quarantining if we're ever going to get back to anything resembling normalcy.
Castro City
on Apr 8, 2020 at 3:50 pm
on Apr 8, 2020 at 3:50 pm
Update on COVID 19
From what I got from this web page (Web Link 2.2 Million tests have been done, however that may be testing done multiple times on the same person because the reports are not consistent. But let’s assume they are not retests. This is 7 tests per thousand people in the U.S. in comparison to Italy where they have 14 per thousand.
The current total as of 1530 PDT on April 8 is 428,901, and those hospitalized and recovered are 23,229, and those that died are 14,600. That means that more than 1/3 of the hospitalized are dying in the hospitals. But since there are only 2,200,000 tests done, we really do not know how many have died in the general public, morticians and coroners do not seem to have enough tests to use on all dead suspected with COVID 19.
OKAY then let’s divide 428,900/2,200,000 which results in an infection rate of 19.5% of the tests. And let’s divide the total hospitalizations which is both the hospitalized and died statistic together that comes to 1.7%. That means that as of now the hospitalization requirement makes up 8.8% of the tested sample. And of that let’s divide 14,600/2,200,000 which results in .6%.
So let’s now use those statistics to do a prediction.
If the country of 330,000,000 is infected at 19.5%, then there could be today 64,350,000. The expected hospitalizations are 1.7% of 330,000,000 or 5,610,000. The current expected deaths are 1,980,000 people.
But as long as we continue the shutdown, these numbers are variable. If we remove the shelter in place orders we will see the infections increase and do so very quickly. We need to stay in place until the TREATMENT and VACCINE can be found that works safely.
Jackson Park
on Apr 8, 2020 at 5:11 pm
on Apr 8, 2020 at 5:11 pm
Models are just that. The official ones are changing constantly to reflect updated information.
I'd recommend not fixating on predictions and instead make sure that you practice the level of sequestration that you feel comfortable with. Wash your hands. Stay home if you're sick or at risk.
Jackson Park
on Apr 8, 2020 at 5:31 pm
on Apr 8, 2020 at 5:31 pm
Why is it unsurprising that a libertarian like Dan Waylonis, even in a global pandemic, sees no place for anything more than individual action? Find your own comfort level with how many elderly people you as an asymptomatic carrier infect and kill?
Another Mountain View Neighborhood
on Apr 9, 2020 at 6:33 am
on Apr 9, 2020 at 6:33 am
Dan knows more than medical science because Dan thinks he has some innate common sense that TRUMPS all the experts who have spent years studying in the field. Dan fancies his opinion as an expert opinion I guess, which is laughable.